Wednesday, April 7, 2010

bdj610's 2004 End of Year All-Star Teams Simulated Games Results

I have finally finished simulating the All-Star Games using my 2004 End of Year All-Star Teams. And just to give you an idea as to how the one game ASG went, let's just say that the SBS program I've been using is really good. The simulated game perfectly captured what has been going on in real ASG's during the middle of the past decade (this should already give you an idea as to who won the game).

Last season's NL team won the seven game series, but lost the one game ASG. Will the same thing happen this year? Just wait and see.

As previously stated, I simulated seven games (six series between starters, and one series where the lineups, starting rotations changed on a daily basis), by playing each one 10,000 times.

The first six games I simulated used each starting pitcher on both sides at least once, and all position players started a minimum of two games each. Here are the results:

  • Game 1: NL vs. AL, Roger Clemens vs. Johan Santana. The AL wins 5,375 games out of 10,000 simulations (using a DH).
  • Game 2: NL vs. AL, Roy Oswalt vs. Curt Schilling. The AL wins 5,482 games (using a DH).
  • Game 3: AL vs. NL, Kenny Rogers vs. Randy Johnson. The NL wins 7,731 games. Johnson pitched 20 no hitters in this series.
  • Game 4: AL vs, NL, Pedro Martinez vs. Jason Schmidt. The NL wins 6,554 games.
  • Game 5: AL vs. NL, Mark Mulder vs. Carl Pavano. The NL wins 6,442 games.
  • Game 6: NL vs. AL, Livan Hernandez vs. Mark Buehrle. The NL wins 5,271 games (using a DH).
  • Game 7: AL vs. NL, anything goes. The NL wins 5,516 games (using a DH).
The National League wins the series 5-2, and the ever important "anything goes" series. The seven game series is tied at 9 series a piece. But the NL presently has a 9-8 lead in the one-game ASG. This seventh series seems to be a good indicator as to who wins the big one. Does this mean good luck for the senior circuit?

For the official All-Star Game, I decided to just simulate one game and one game only. The starting pitchers were Clemens and Santana and I let them pitch two innings (unless they struggled badly). The rest of the pitchers would get one inning each (unless they struggled badly). The position players were replaced every three innings. No pinch hitters here, (as in previous tries, the pinch hitter is taken out of the game). The DH's (Jim Thome of the NL and David Ortiz of the AL) were never replaced.

The starting lineups, first for the National League (I'm using 2005 Topps cards because these are the cards I used to represent the players on my All-Star teams):

Now the American League starting lineup:

Here is the result:

The 2004 AL All-Stars beat the 2004 NL All-Stars by a final score of 2-1 in a very evenly matched, exciting game. Pitching was the name of the game today, and both sides were dominant.

The box score is below (Just click on the picture to take a closer look).

The scoring plays were as follows:

Bottom 2: Roger Clemens pitching. Vladimir Guerrero hits a home run.

Top 7: Joe Nathan pitching. Moises Alou struck out. Todd Helton draws a walk. Jim Thome singles, Helton advances to second. Mark Loretta reaches first on an error by Brian Roberts (E4), Helton advances to third, Thome advances to second. Adrian Beltre hits a sacrifice fly to Mark Kotsay (SAC 8), Helton scoring.

Bottom 9: Eric Gagne pitching. Victor Martinez draws a walk, advances to second on a wild pitch. Mark Kotsay strikes out. Michael Young strikes out. Aubrey Huff hits a single, Martinez scoring.

Your starters, Roger Clemens and Johan Santana. Francisco Cordero is the MVP.

If this game actually existed, the MVP award would have gone to Francisco Cordero (W, 2.0 innings, four strikeouts). Cordero takes the win , Eric Gagne gets the loss, and the only players who didn't get in the game were pitchers Livan Hernandez, Jason Isringhausen, & John Smoltz of the NL and Mark Buehrle, Troy Percival, & Mariano Rivera from the AL. Now both the seven game series AND the All-Star Game are tied at 9 per league going back to 1987.

If you want to see the .DAT files that I used (I still don't know how to download these onto the blog , so please just take a look at the screen caps below). If anyone can e-mail me instructions, please do so at Below is the NL .DAT file, then the AL .DAT file:

Now that the 2004 All-Star Games are officially over, at 9:00 AM CST on Thursday, I will introduce the 2005 End of Year All-Star teams. Simulations for games with those rosters to come hopefully by Sunday night.


JayBee Anama

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