Looking over recent ASG simulation results, the NL has won the last five seven-game series, but the AL won last year's ASG simulation. Will the AL win two-in-a-row??? Keep on reading.
As previously stated, I simulated seven games (six series between starters, and one series where the lineups, starting rotations changed on a daily basis), by playing each one 10,000 times.
The first six games I simulated used each starting pitcher on both sides at least once, and all position players started a minimum of two games each. To make up for my stupidity last year (I forgot that the AL had home field, and wound up setting it up so the NL "hosted" four games), although the NL hosted the ASG (in St. Louis), the AL had home-field advantage. Here are the results:
- Game 1: NL vs. AL, Tim Lincecum vs. Cliff Lee. The NL wins 5,257 games out of 10,000 simulations (using a DH).
- Game 2: NL vs. AL, Brandon Webb vs. Roy Halladay. The AL wins 5,092 games (using a DH).
- Game 3: AL vs. NL, Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Johan Santana. The NL wins 5,690 games.
- Game 4: AL vs. NL, Gavin Floyd vs. Ryan Dempster. The NL wins 6,360 games. As a Cubs fan, I was happy with this result. Too bad it doesn't happen often in real life.
- Game 5: AL vs. NL, Joe Saunders vs. Chad Billingsley. The NL wins 5,777 games.
- Game 6: NL vs. AL, Edinson Volquez vs. A. J. Burnett. The NL wins 5,489 games (using a DH).
- Game 7: NL vs. AL, anything goes. The NL wins 5,262 games (using a DH).
For the official All-Star Game, I decided to just simulate one game and one game only. The starting pitchers were Lee and Lincecum and I let them pitch two innings (unless they struggled badly). The rest of the pitchers would get one inning each (unless they struggled badly). The position players were replaced every three innings. The DH's (Albert Pujols of the NL and Jim Thome of the AL) were used pinch hitters and entered the game as needed.
The starting lineups, first for the American League (I'm using 2009 Topps cards because these are the cards I used to represent the players on my All-Star teams):
Now the National League starting lineup:
Here is the result:
The 2008 AL All-Stars beat the 2008 NL All-Stars by a final score of 7-6 in a game that could have gone either way. The offenses were kicking for the most part, not with home runs, but with clutch hitting.
The box score is below (Just click on the picture to take a closer look).
The scoring plays were as follows:
Bottom 2: Cliff Lee pitching. Matt Holliday singled. Chipper Jones hits a double, Holliday scores. Ryan Bruan singles, Jones advancing to third. Geovany Soto grounds into a double play (GDP 6-4-3), Jones scores, Braun out at second (6-4).
Top 3: Brandon Webb pitching. Joe Mauer flies out to Matt Holliday (9). Jim Thome, pinch hitting for Cliff Lee, strikes out. Ichiro Suzuki singled. Derek Jeter hits a triple, Suzuki scores.
Bottom 3: Roy Halladay pitching. Albert Pujols, pinch hitting for Brandon Webb, hits a single. Alfonso Soriano reaches first on a fielders choice (4-6), Albert Pujols out at second base. Hanley Ramirez singled, Soriano advancing to second. Lance Berkman strikes out. Matt Holliday hits a double, Soriano scores, Ramirez scores.
Top 4: Johan Santana pitching. Josh Hamilton strikes out. Vladimir Guerrero hits a double. Justin Morneau hits a home run, Guerrero scores.
Top 6: Edinson Volquez pitching. Evan Longoria grounds out to Jose Reyes (6-3). Raul Ibañez grounds out to Volquez (1-3). Magglio Ordoñez singled. Miguel Cabrera draws a walk, Ordoñez advancing to second. Brian Roberts hits a double, Ordoñez scores, Cabrera advancing to third.
Bottom 6: Gavin Floyd pitching. Adam Dunn, pinch hitting for Edinson Volquez draws a walk. Carlos Beltran flies out to Magglio Ordoñez, Dan Uggla hits a double, Dunn scoring.
Top 7: Brian Wilson pitching. A. J. Pierzynski flies out to Pat Burrell (7). Grady Sizemore singled. Michael Young singled, Sizemore advancing to third. Evan Longoria hits a singles to center, Sizemore scores, Young out at third on thorw by Nate McLouth (8-5).
Top 8: Carlos Marmol pitching. Nick Markakis reaches first on an error by Marmol (E1). Kevin Youkilis draws a walk, Markakis advancing to second. Ian Kinsler singled, Markakis scores, Youkilis advancing to third. Jack Cust strikes out. Dioner Navarro hits a sacrifice fly to McLouth (SAC 8), Youkilis scores.
Bottom 8: Joakim Soria pitching. Ryan Ludwick hits a home run.
If this game actually existed, the nominees for the MVP award could have either been Justin Morneau (2-2, 1 hr, 2 rbi's), Evan Longoria (1-2, game tying rbi), or Scot Shields (win, first pitcher on either side to have a 1-2-3 inning, 1 K). At this point, I'd have to give the MVP award to Morneau, not only because of his numbers (he had the best offensive numbers of anybody in the game), but his home run in the fourth inning was off his former teammate Johan Santana. Scot Shields takes the win in relief, Carlos Marmol suffers the loss, Mariano Rivera picks up the save, and the only players who didn't get in the game were pitchers Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, & Joe Saunders of the AL, and Chad Billingslea, Brad Lidge, and Kerry Wood from the NL. Each league are now tied at 11 wins a piece in the ASG simulation.
If you want to see the .DAT files that I used (I still don't know how to download these onto the blog , so please just take a look at the screen caps below). If anyone can e-mail me instructions, please do so at firstname.lastname@example.org. Below is the AL .DAT file, then the NL .DAT file:
Now that the 2008 All-Star Games are officially over, at 9:00 AM CST on Thursday, I will re-introduce the 2009 End of Year All-Star teams. Simulations for games with those rosters to come hopefully before the announce the REAL All-Stars for the 2010 ASG in Anaheim.