Tuesday, April 13, 2010

bdj610's 2005 End of Year All-Star Teams Simulated Games Results

I have finally finished simulating the All-Star Games using my 2005 End of Year All-Star Teams. In 18 years worth of simulations, both the NL and the AL are tied at 9 wins a piece in both the seven-game series and the 1 game ASG. In the 19th edition of this All-Star simulation, which league will come out on top? Stay tuned.

As previously stated, I simulated seven games (six series between starters, and one series where the lineups, starting rotations changed on a daily basis), by playing each one 10,000 times. And if you follow me on Twitter, you would have already seen the results. For those that don't, please keep reading.

The first six games I simulated used each starting pitcher on both sides at least once, and all position players started a minimum of two games each. Here are the results:

  • Game 1: AL vs. NL, Mark Buehrle vs. Chris Carpenter. The NL wins 5,934 games out of 10,000 simulations.
  • Game 2: AL vs. NL, Bartolo Colon vs. Dontrelle Willis. The NL wins 6,741 games.
  • Game 3: NL vs. AL, Roy Oswalt vs. Cliff Lee. The NL wins 5,665 games (using a DH).
  • Game 4: NL vs, AL, Chris Capuano vs. Jon Garland. The AL wins 5,427 games (using a DH).
  • Game 5: NL vs. AL, Pedro Martinez vs. Randy Johnson. The NL wins 6,293 games (using a DH).
  • Game 6: AL vs. NL, Johan Santana vs. Roger Clemens. The NL wins 6,164 games.
  • Game 7: AL vs. NL, anything goes. The NL wins 5,769 games.
So the NL wins the seven game series 6-1, including the ever important "anything goes" series. This gives the NL a 10-9 edge in the seven game series. Now, for the last three "years," the AL has won the ASG, and in the last two years, this was after the NL dominated the AL in the seven game series 5-2. Will the AL win their fourth straight ASG? Or will the NL finally break through?

For the official All-Star Game, I decided to just simulate one game and one game only. The starting pitchers were Buehrle and Carpenter and I let them pitch two innings (unless they struggled badly). The rest of the pitchers would get one inning each (unless they struggled badly). The position players were replaced every three innings. Double switches were performed on both sides when the case allowed it.

The starting lineups, first for the American League (I'm using 2006 Topps cards because these are the cards I used to imagine my All-Star teams. It's getting harder and harder to find all the cards of the starters in the regular Topps designs because they've taken the liberty to update the teams too quickly):

Now the National League starting lineup:

Here is the result:

The 2005 NL All-Stars beat the 2005 AL All-Stars by a final score of 8-2. Dominant pitching by the NL, plus key hits helped the NL snap it's three game losing streak.

The box score is below (Just click on the picture to take a closer look).

The scoring plays were like this:

Top 2: Chris Carpenter pitching. Manny Ramirez strikes out. Alfonso Soriano hits a single. Alex Rodriguez hits a double, Soriano scores.

Bottom 2: Mark Buehrle pitching. Aramis Ramirez draws a walk. Miguel Cabrera hits a single, Ramirez advancing to second. Jeff Kent hits a double, Ramirez scores, Cabrera advancing to third. Mike Piazza at bat. Buehrle throws a wild pitch, Cabrera scores, Kent advancing to third. Piazza grounds out to Alex Rodriguez (5-3). Chris Carpenter hits a single, Kent scores.

Bottom 4: Cliff Lee pitching. Chase Utley draws a walk. Paul LoDuca grounds out to Paul Konerko (3-1), Utley advancing to second. Jason Bay grounds out to Konerko (3-1), Utley advancing to third. Brian Giles reaches first on an error by Jorge Cantu (E4), Utley scores.

Bottom 6: Jon Garland pitching. Paul LoDuca hits a single. Jason Bay flies out to Vernon Wells (8). Brian Giles hits a single, LoDuca advancing to second. Rafael Furcal reaches first on a fielders choice (FC), LoDuca advancing to third, Giles out at second. Albert Pujols hits a single, LoDuca scores, Furcal advancing to third. Cliff Politte pitching. Ken Griffey, Jr. hits a home run, Furcal scores, Pujols scores.

Top 9: Chad Cordero pitching. Scott Podsednik grounds out to Morgan Ensberg (5-3). Brian Roberts hits a single. Shea Hillenbrand hits a single, Roberts advancing to third. Michael Young hits a single, Roberts scores, Hillenbrand advancing to second.

The MVP for the 2005 All-Star Game is Ken Grifey, Jr.

If this game actually existed, the MVP would have been Ken Griffey, Jr (1-2, 1 home run, 3 rbi's, two great defensive plays in center). Dontrelle Willis picks up the win (even though it should have gone to Carpenter), Mark Buerhle suffers the loss, and the only players who did not get in the game were pitchers Mariano Rivera, Johan Santana, & Bob Wickman of the AL and Chris Capuano, Trevor Hoffman, & Brad Lidge of the NL.

In nineteen ASG simulations, the NL now also has a 10-9 lead over the AL in both the seven game series and the one game All-Star Game.

If you want to see the .DAT files that I used (I still don't know how to download these onto the blog , so please just take a look at the screen caps below). If anyone can e-mail me instructions, please do so at bdj610@hotmail.com. Below is the AL .DAT file, then the NL .DAT file:

Now that the 2005 All-Star Games are officially over, on Wednesday, I will introduce the 2006 End of Year All-Star teams. I swear I won't take so long this time to get the simulations for games ready for next week.


JayBee Anama

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