Monday, April 26, 2010

bdj610's 2006 End of Year All-Star Teams Simulated Games Results

I have finally finished simulating the All-Star Games using my 2006 End of Year All-Star Teams. I thought that the 2002 teams were close in terms of talent and evenly matched. Then I simulated games with the 2006 rosters. For the first time ever, one 10,000 game series ended in a tie. Each team won 5,000 games. So I was stuck with a dilemma. I didn't want to play a one game ASG with the rosters used in series 2, and I didn't just want the program to simulate one game only. Nor did I want to run another 10,000 game simulation. So what I did was run one 162 game season using the same lineups, and this time, a winner was determined. Going into today's results, the NL holds a 10-9 advantage in both the seven-game series and the 1 game ASG. Will records even out again in the 20th edition of this All-Star simulation? Stay tuned.

As previously stated, I simulated seven games (six series between starters, and one series where the lineups, starting rotations changed on a daily basis), by playing each one 10,000 times. And if you follow me on Twitter, you would have already seen the results. For those that don't, please keep reading.

The first six games I simulated used each starting pitcher on both sides at least once, and all position players started a minimum of two games each. Here are the results:

  • Game 1: AL vs. NL, Johan Santana vs. Chris Carpenter. The AL wins 5,273 games out of 10,000 simulations.
  • Game 2: AL vs. NL, Chien-Ming Wang vs. Carlos Zambrano. Series tied at 5,000 games. In 162-game tiebreaker, the NL wins 92-70.
  • Game 3: NL vs. AL, John Smoltz vs. Kenny Roger. The NL wins 5,365 games (using a DH).
  • Game 4: NL vs, AL, Brandon Webb vs. Jon Garland. The NL wins 5,984 games (using a DH).
  • Game 5: NL vs. AL, Derek Lowe vs. Justin Verlander. The NL wins 5,106 games (using a DH).
  • Game 6: AL vs. NL, Roy Halladay vs. Roy Oswalt. The AL wins 5,400 games.
  • Game 7: AL vs. NL, anything goes. The NL wins 5,219 games.
So the NL wins the seven game series 5-2-1 (I am including the to show that one of these series actually ended in a 5,000 game deadlock...just like they do in hockey), including the ever important "anything goes" series. This gives the NL a 11-9 edge in the seven game series. Will the AL stop the bleeding in the ASG?

For the official All-Star Game, I decided to just simulate one game and one game only. The starting pitchers were Santana and Carpenter and I let them pitch two innings (unless they struggled badly). The rest of the pitchers would get one inning each (unless they struggled badly). The position players were replaced every three innings. Double switches were performed on both sides when the case allowed it. And the two "DH's" (David Ortiz and Garett Atkins) were the first pinch hitters used when needed.

The starting lineups, first for the American League (I'm using 2007 Topps cards because these are the cards I used to imagine my All-Star teams. It's getting harder and harder to find all the cards of the starters in the regular Topps designs because they've taken the liberty to update the teams too quickly):

Now the National League starting lineup:

Here is the result:

The 2006 NL All-Stars beat the 2006 AL All-Stars by a final score of 3-2 in 10 innings. Dominant pitching by both teams, outstanding defense in the outfield (Alfonso Soriano nailed Mark Teixeira at home preventing a run, and Gary Matthews, Jr. not only robbed Aramis Ramirez of a home run, but also gunned down Adam Dunn at third base), and some incredibly clutch hitting by the National League sent the game to extras.

The box score is below (Just click on the picture to take a closer look).

The scoring plays were like this:

Bottom 2: Johan Santana pitching. Jason Bay lined out to Vladimir Guerrero (9). David Wright hits a double, and reaches third on an error by Guerrero (2B/E9). Chase Utley hits a single, Wright scores.

Top 6: Brandon Webb pitching. Jermaine Dye draws a walk, and on a wild pitch, advances to second. Justin Morneau draws a walk. Victor Martinez hits a single, Dye scores, Morneau advances to second.

Top 8: Billy Wagner pitching. Gary Matthews, Jr. hits a double. Paul Konerko flies out to Adam Dunn (7). Ivan Rodriguez grounds out to Lance Berkman (3-1), Matthews, Jr. advancing to third. Adrian Beltre hits a single, Matthews, Jr. scores.

Bottom 9: Bobby Jenks pithcing. Billy Wagner grounds out to Tadahito Iguchi (4-3). Freddy Sanchez draws a walk. Michael Barrett grounds out to Tadahito Iguchi (4-3). Juan Pierre hits a double, Freddy Sanchez scores.

Bottom 10: Roy Halladay pitching. Adam Dunn grounds out to Tadahito Iguchi (4-3). Aramis Ramirez hits a double. Lance Berkman hits a single, Ramirez scores.

The MVP for the 2006 All-Star Game is Juan Pierre.

If this game actually existed, the MVP would have been Juan Pierre (2-2, two doubles, game tying rbi). Derek Lowe picks up the win, Roy Halladay suffers the extra inning loss, and the only players who did not get in the game were pitchers Francisco Rodriguez & Joel Zumaya of the AL and Joe Borowski, Tom Gordon, & Trevor Hoffman of the NL.

In twenty ASG simulations, the NL now also has a 11-9 lead over the AL in both the seven game series and the one game All-Star Game.

If you want to see the .DAT files that I used (I still don't know how to download these onto the blog , so please just take a look at the screen caps below). If anyone can e-mail me instructions, please do so at Below is the AL .DAT file, then the NL .DAT file:

Now that the 2006 All-Star Games are officially over, on Wednesday, I will introduce the 2007 End of Year All-Star teams. This is the final team I have to introduce as my 2008 and 2009 teams are already on the blog.


JayBee Anama

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