Wednesday, March 24, 2010

bdj610's 2003 End of Year All-Star Teams Simulated Games Results

I have finally finished simulating the All-Star Games using my 2003 End of Year All-Star Teams. With two very evenly matched teams, who would prevail? Keep on reading below.

As previously stated, I simulated seven games (six series between starters, and one series where the lineups, starting rotations changed on a daily basis), by playing each one 10,000 times.

The first six games I simulated used each starting pitcher on both sides at least once, and all position players started a minimum of two games each. Here are the results:

  • Game 1: AL vs. NL, Roy Halladay vs. Mark Prior. The NL wins 6,276 games out of 10,000 simulations.
  • Game 2: AL vs. NL, Jamie Moyer vs. Russ Ortiz. The NL wins 5,260 games.
  • Game 3: NL vs. AL, Woody Williams vs. Andy Pettitte. The NL wins 5,503 games (using a DH).
  • Game 4: NL vs, AL, Kerry Wood vs. Esteban Loaiza. The AL wins 5,492 games (using a DH).
  • Game 5: NL vs. AL, Steve Trachsel vs. Tim Hudson. The AL wins 6,457 games (using a DH).
  • Game 6: AL vs. NL, C. C. Sabathia vs. Jason Schimidt. The NL wins 6,883 games.
  • Game 7: AL vs. NL, anything goes. The NL wins 5,468 games.
So the NL wins the seven game series 5-2, including the ever important "anything goes" series. We've seen how important this seventh series seems to be when predicting a winner in the one game ASG. Will this mean a win for the NL?

For the official All-Star Game, I decided to just simulate one game and one game only. The starting pitchers were Halladay and Prior and I let them pitch two innings (unless they struggled badly). The rest of the pitchers would get one inning each (unless they struggled badly). The position players were replaced every three innings. Double switches were performed on both sides when the case allowed it.

The starting lineups, first for the American League (I'm using 2004 Topps cards because these are the cards I used to imagine my All-Star teams):

Now the National League starting lineup:

Here is the result:

The 2004 AL All-Stars beat the 2004 NL All-Stars by a final score of 8-3. It was a mix of timely hitting plus gutsy pitching performances that helped the AL to this surprising victory.

The box score is below (Just click on the picture to take a closer look).

The scoring plays were like this:

Top 4: Russ Ortiz pitching. Alfonso Soriano flies out to Luis Gonzalez (7). Carlos Delgado draws a walk. Manny Ramirez hits a single, Delgado advancing to third. Torii Hunter grounds out to Jim Thome (3UP), Delgado scores, Ramirez advancing to third.

Bottom 4: Esteban Loaiza pitching. Mike Lowell flies out to Magglio Ordoñez (9). Luis Gonzalez draws a walk. Sammy Sosa grounds out to Michael Young (4-3), Gonzalez advancing to second. Ivan Rodriguez hits a double, Gonzalez scoring.

Top 5: Woody Williams pitching. Hank Blalock singles. A. J. Pierzynski hits a double, Blalock scores. Nomar Garciaparra triples, Pierzynski scores. Magglio Ordoñez hits a sacrifice fly to Luis Gonzalez (7 SAC), Garciaparra scores. Kerry Wood pitching. Michael Young draws a walk. Frank Thomas singles. Garrett Anderson singles, Young scores, Thomas advancing to second.

Top 7: Tim Worrell pitching. Michael Young draws a walk. Frank Thomas strikes out. Garrett Anderson singles, Young advancing to second. Carlos Beltran hits a home run, Young scores, Anderson scores.

Bottom 7: Brendan Donnelly pitching. Richie Sexson hits a home run.

Bottom 9: Eddie Guardado pitching. Richie Sexson hits a double. Lance Berkman singles, Sexson scores.

The MVP for the 2003 All-Star Game is Carlos Beltran.

If this game actually existed, the MVP would have been Carlos Beltran (1-1, 1 homer run, 3 rbi's). Esteban Loaiza picks up the win, Woody Williams suffers the loss, and the only players who didn't get in the game were pitchers Keith Foulke, Jorge Julio, Mariano Rivera, and C. C. Sabathia from the AL and Eric Gagne and Steve Trachsel from the NL.

In seventeen All-Star Series, the AL has a 9-8 lead in series play, but the NL has a 9-8 record in the one-game All-Star Game.

If you want to see the .DAT files that I used (I still don't know how to download these onto the blog , so please just take a look at the screen caps below). If anyone can e-mail me instructions, please do so at Below is the AL .DAT file, then the NL .DAT file:

Now that the 2003 All-Star Games are officially over, on Monday, I will introduce the 2004 End of Year All-Star teams. I swear I won't take so long this time to get the simulations for games ready for next week.


JayBee Anama

1 comment:

TDLindgren said...

Love the 2004 set! One of my favorites in the last 20 years. Since 1990 I would rank my favorite Topps sets as follows:

1. 2009
2. 2004
3. 1996
4. 2010
5. 2005