Friday, August 6, 2010

bdj610's 2009 End of Year All-Star Teams Simulated Games Results

This is going to be the first of a series of posts that I meant to put on the blog this past month, but for one reason or another (sheer laziness, vacation, busy at work, you get the idea), I wasn't able either to post it on time, or just didn't do it until now. In the mean time, please pretend that this post was created on July 2, 2010. Thanks. jba

Okay, I have finally finished simulating the All-Star Games using my 2009 End of Year All-Star Teams. And, just as it has been in real life, both teams were evenly matched. So much so that the game itself went into extra innings (the third time this has happened since 2002) going into the 11th inning of play. Fortunately, I am not bound by restrictions for using players like in real life, and I think all but one player got into this game.

As this is the final ASG simulation reviewing teams from the past, the overall series records will be posted towards the end of the post. Looking over recent ASG simulation results, the NL has won the last six seven-game series, but the AL has won the last two ASG simulations. Will the AL win their third straight??? Keep on reading.

As previously stated, I simulated seven games (six series between starters, and one series where the lineups, starting rotations changed on a daily basis), by playing each one 10,000 times.

The first six games I simulated used each starting pitcher on both sides at least once, and all position players started a minimum of two games each. Here are the results:

  • Game 1: NL vs. AL, Adam Wainwright vs. Felix Hernandez. The AL wins 5,482 games out of 10,000 simulations (using a DH).
  • Game 2: NL vs. AL, Tim Lincecum vs. Zack Greinke. The AL wins 5,212 games (using a DH).
  • Game 3: AL vs. NL, Roy Halladay vs. Chris Carpenter. The NL wins 6,017 games.
  • Game 4: AL vs. NL, Josh Beckett vs. Javier Vazquez. The NL wins 5,535 games.
  • Game 5: AL vs. NL, Justin Verlander vs. Josh Johnson. The NL wins 5,617 games.
  • Game 6: NL vs. AL, Ubaldo Jimenez vs. CC Sabathia. The AL wins 5,362 games (using a DH).
  • Game 7: NL vs. AL, anything goes. The AL wins 5,132 games (using a DH).
So the AL wins the series 4-3, snapping the NL's six series winning streak. The overall record in the 23 series that I've simulated, the NL has a 13-10 lead over their AL rivals. The seventh series, in which the simulator picks the lineups and the rotations, ideally would give us an idea as to who would win the ASG. In the 23 seventh series that I've run, the NL also has a 13-10 lead. However, up to this point, the team that wins the final set has won the one-game ASG 14 times (out of 22 for a 63.6% accuracy rate). With the AL winning the series and the 7th game, can they win the ASG?

For the official All-Star Game, I decided to just simulate one game and one game only. The starting pitchers were Wainwright and Hernandez and I let them pitch two innings (unless they struggled badly). The rest of the pitchers would get one inning each (unless they struggled badly). The position players were replaced every three innings. The DH's (Pablo Sandoval of the NL and Adam Lind of the AL) were never replaced.

The starting lineups, first for the National League (I'm using 2010 Topps cards because these are the cards I used to represent the players on my All-Star teams):

Now the American League starting lineup:

Here is the result:

The 2009 NL All-Stars beat the 2009 AL All-Stars by a final score of 5-3 in eleven innings. While the pitching was dominant at times, it was a pair of clutch home runs that brought the game into extra innings, and eventually won it for the National League.

The box score is below (Just click on the picture to take a closer look).

The scoring plays were as follows:

Top 1: Felix Hernandez pitching. Hanley Ramirez flies out to Jason Bay (7). Chase Utley draws a walk. Albert Pujols draws a walk, Utley advancing to second. Ryan Braun flies out to Magglio OrdoƱez (9), Utley advancing to third on the sacrifice. With Jayson Werth pitching, a passed ball by C Joe Mauer allows Utley to score, Pujols advancing to second.

Bottom 3: Tim Lincecum pitching. Adam Lind hits a single. Evan Longoria draws a walk, Lind advancing to second. Aaron Hill draws a walk, Lind advancing to third, Longoria advancing to second. Ichiro Suzuki pops out to Hanley Ramirez (6). Derek Jeter strikes out. Mark Teixeira hits a double, Lind scores, Longoria scores, Hill advancing to third.

Top 5: Justin Verlander pitching. Troy Tulowitzki draws a walk. Brandon Phillips his a double, Tulowitzki scores.

Bottom 6: Josh Johnson pitching. Jason Bartlett draws a walk. Miguel Cabrera strikes out. Carl Crawford reaches first on an error by Johnson (E1), Bartlett advancing to second. Nick Markakis strikes out. Victor Martinez hits a single, Bartlett scores, Crawford advancing to third.

Top 8: Joe Nathan pitching. Adam Dunn strikes out. Shane Victorino hits a home run.

Top 11: Josh Beckett pitching. Brad Hawpe flies out to Shin-Soo Choo (8). Pablo Sandoval hits a home run. Andy LaRoche draws a walk. Mariano Rivera pitching. Brian McCann flies out to Choo (8). Miguel Tejada hits a double, LaRoche scores.

Your starters, Adam Wainwright and Felix Hernandez.

The MVP for the 2009 All-Star Game is Pablo Sandoval.

If this game actually existed, the nominees for the MVP award would have been Pablo Sandoval (2-5, 1 hr, game winning home run). Ubaldo Jimenez takes the extra-inning win in relief, Josh Beckett suffers the loss, Heath Bell picks up the save in the bottom of the 11th, and the only player who didn't get in the game was pitcher Francisco Cordero of the NL.

So as of right now, the NL now claims a 12-11 lead in the All-Star Game simulation. The 2009 AL team is now the ninth team to win the seventh series and lose the ASG (14-9 is the seventh series winner in the ASG). This gives the league who wins the seventh series a 60.8% chance of winning the ASG.

If you want to see the .DAT files that I used (I still don't know how to download these onto the blog , so please just take a look at the screen caps below). If anyone can e-mail me instructions, please do so at Below is the NL .DAT file, then the AL .DAT file:

Now that the 2009 All-Star Games are officially over, this now concludes the introduction of bdj610's All-Star teams. It has been an incredible journey to share what was once a 12 year old's fantasy and make it a reality 23 years later. Putting these teams online has allowed me to rediscover my old notes and allowed me to transfer my rosters from an old Apple computer to an online setting. I want to thank the staff at Strategic Baseball Simulator for helping me figure out how to properly use the simulator and for the years of statistics used to compile the rosters for each set of simulations. And going forward, as I continue to name my All-Star teams (the 2010 teams will be named as soon as the season ends...whenever that may be), I will also use the simulator to determine which league would win an imagined All-Star Game.

I think the next step is to do a tournament, using these 23 pairs of teams (and of course the teams that will be determined for this year...24 pairs total) to determine the best of the best. I have an idea how to accomplish this, but it will take some manipulation (and possibly adding extra players to level the playing field in some cases), to see if this can be done. Thank you for reading.


JayBee Anama

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